Analysis of The Hindu Editorial – September 12, 2024

Analysis of The Hindu Editorial 1: Instability and uncertainty stalk Bangladesh

Context:

With the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the emergence of an interim government headed by economist Muhammad Yunus, and the intervention of foreign powers in Bangladeshi affairs, Bangladesh’s political landscape has been characterized by instability and uncertainty. These developments present serious obstacles to the country’s democratic framework and have wider geopolitical ramifications, especially for India and China.

Introduction

The article opens by highlighting the precarious state of affairs in Bangladesh and highlighting how unstable political stability is. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and forced exile following weeks of student demonstrations against an unpopular quota system signal a dramatic shift in the political landscape of the nation. Deep-seated dissatisfaction with Hasina’s leadership is reflected in the army’s support for Muhammad Yunus to form an interim government. This development raises concerns about Bangladesh’s political future.

Factors Leading to Instability

1. Protests Against the Quota System: A quota system that set aside a percentage of government positions for the offspring of liberation fighters sparked the protests. The government violently suppressed the student-led protests, which were motivated by feelings of injustice. Protests continued even after the quota system was abandoned, suggesting a deep-seated discontent with Hasina’s governance.
2. Heavy-Handed Governance: Significant portions of the public were further alienated by Hasina’s style of governance, which was characterized by accusations of authoritarianism and contempt for civil liberties. The public’s perception of her as a despot gained momentum when important figures in the banking, education, and judiciary sectors were forced to resign under her direction.
3. Formation of the Interim Government: The army backed Yunus’s interim government right away, and institutional reforms were swiftly implemented. But the stability of this new government is still questionable, and the army’s support may not last for long.

Early Comparisons and Uncertainty

Although Hasina’s removal might seem like a victory for democratic forces, the essay compares it to the Prague Spring and points out that these kinds of movements are frequently fleeting and susceptible to outside intervention. The geopolitical interests of powerful nations like China and the United States, both of which aim to increase their influence in South Asia, are significant in the situation of Bangladesh. Even though things are unstable, the situation does not yet fit the standard “color revolution” paradigm that the West has promoted.

Political pressure for elections is growing, and the future of the temporary government is still unclear. If elections are called too soon, the shaky peace that Bangladesh is currently experiencing could be replaced by further unrest.

Areas of Concern

1. Democratic Deficit: There is a substantial “democracy deficit” that Hasina’s administration has caused; it is uncertain if this can be remedied amicably or if it will spark more bloodshed. A further layer of complexity is created by the emergence of Islamist groups, which pose a risk to Bangladesh’s secular democracy.
2. India’s Role and Concerns: India, which in the past has been crucial to Bangladesh’s freedom, is faced with a difficult decision. While India intends to preserve the cordial relations fostered by Hasina, there are reasons for concern due to the rising power of Islamist groups and the potential for Bangladesh to forge closer connections with China. India’s security interests are also at risk, especially in light of the possible return of extremist organizations like the Mizo National Front and the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), which were previously suppressed by Hasina and had taken refuge in Bangladesh.

Geopolitical Implications

1. India and China’s Interests: Bangladesh is an important actor in the regional power dynamics between China and India because of its advantageous position. The West believes that Bangladesh may develop as a new front in the Indo-China conflict because it sees world events through a geopolitical prism. The article notes that Bangladesh might try to align itself more closely with China as a result of Hasina’s departure, which would complicate India’s foreign policy in the area even more.
2. Islamist Radicalism: A serious worry for Bangladesh and its neighbors, particularly India, is the possible emergence of extreme Islamist ideology. There is a genuine risk of extremist elements establishing a firmer footing in South Asia due to the growing influence of Islamist organizations in Bangladesh and the regional unrest in Myanmar and Southeast Asia.

Conclusion

Bangladesh faces a complex scenario with many factors at work from both inside and outside the nation. Instead of creating a clear path towards democratic stability, Sheikh Hasina’s removal has created fresh uncertainty. India faces a complicated range of issues as a result of the events in Bangladesh, including the need to carefully reevaluate its tactics in order to preserve regional security and fend against the growing influence of China and radical Islamist movements. Bangladesh’s future depends on its people and leaders’ ability to manage these volatile times, and the country still faces many possible hazards.

Analysis of The Hindu Editorial 2: Perils of decentralisation with Chinese characteristics

Context

China’s decentralization model, which was previously essential to the country’s economic development, is coming under growing fire as its shortcomings become more obvious. India and other countries can benefit much from an understanding of China’s decentralization plan changes and their effects.

Introduction

The Indian Prime Minister recently highlighted the advantages of decentralized economic strategy in a speech in which he urged states to vie for the attention of investors. China’s experience, though, indicates that excessive decentralization may have unfavorable effects. This paper looks at the reasons behind the failure of decentralization, which was previously hailed as the key to China’s economic miracle.

Comparative Decentralization: India vs. China

1. Government Spending Distribution: In China, sub-provincial governments receive a substantial 51% of government spending, in contrast to India, where city-level governments receive less than 3% of total government spending.
2. Mandate and Responsibilities: While in India, national governments are usually in charge of unemployment insurance and pensions, local governments in China oversee a wide range of duties.
3. Centralization vs. Federalism: China has a decentralized fiscal system, yet the federal government does not safeguard the authority of local governments. As demonstrated by the 1994 Tax-Sharing Reform, China’s Party-state structure permits the central government to overrule local choices, in contrast to federal systems where lower-level governments have constitutionally guaranteed powers.

Structural Overcapacity

1. Shift to Industrialization: Local governments gave industrial expansion precedence over public services because they needed to increase their political clout and spur economic growth. In order to draw in investors, they provided industrial land at a discount, which significantly increased industrial output and spurred regional expansion.
2. Overcapacity Issues: Due to its innate overcapacity, this investment-led approach proved troublesome up to the Hu Jintao era. Subnational expansion was competitive, which resulted in loss-making businesses, unnecessary investments, and structural inefficiencies.

Positive Trends and Limitations

1. Local Innovations: Local governments had room to experiment with economic reforms and innovations. For example, Guangdong’s special economic zones and other regional models contributed to growth and experimentation.
2. Global Demand: China benefited from a favorable geopolitical climate, with foreign markets absorbing its growing industrial output, such as in the steel sector. However, this external demand could not sustain indefinite overcapacity.

Tipping Point and Policy Shifts

• Ineffective Investments: By 2014, a significant portion of investment was deemed ineffective, leading to a waste of approximately $6.9 trillion. Xi Jinping’s response involved centralizing control and directing capital into specific areas, such as the semiconductor industry.
• Narrowed Focus: The focus on self-sufficiency, such as the push to develop a domestic semiconductor industry, has not aligned with market demands or China’s comparative advantages. This has led to continued financial losses among many firms.
• Geopolitical and International Issues: Increased overcapacity and negative international perceptions have led to geopolitical tensions and criticisms of Chinese products.

Future Directions

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China’s attempt to replace Western markets with domestic demand and new international markets through the BRI has not fully succeeded. The participating countries lack the economic strength to create substantial demand. China needs to pivot towards fostering innovation and building stronger global partnerships.

Conclusion

China’s experience illustrates that extreme decentralization and export-oriented strategies can lead to significant economic challenges. While there may be short-term gains in certain sectors, without significant reforms in its economic and political strategies, China faces potential long-term economic decline. The lessons from China’s decentralization could offer insights for other nations navigating similar paths.