Analysis of The Indian Express Editorial – December 18, 2024

Analysis of The Indian Express Editorial 1 : Closing the Gulf Circle

Context

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Kuwait marks a pivotal moment in India’s Gulf diplomacy, bridging a decades-long gap in high-level engagement. This visit underscores the growing importance of Gulf nations in India’s economic, energy, and security strategies, while addressing past challenges and leveraging new opportunities in a transforming Middle East.

Introduction

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Kuwait marks a milestone in India’s diplomatic outreach to the Gulf region—a vital player in India’s security and economic frameworks. With this visit, India closes a decades-long gap in high-level engagement, reflecting the region’s growing importance in India’s foreign policy.

This article explores the historical challenges in India-Kuwait relations, the transformation of India’s ties with Gulf nations, and the strategic opportunities awaiting both countries in a rapidly evolving Middle East.

Historical Context: India’s Neutral Stance in Gulf Conflicts

Balancing Act in the Gulf War

In the 1990 Gulf War, India’s hesitancy to outright condemn Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait stemmed from its close ties with Iraq. Similar patterns were evident in India’s cautious approach to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and Russia’s actions in Ukraine in 2022.

Alignment with Ba’athist Regimes

During the late 20th century, India aligned itself with radical nationalist Arab republics like Iraq and Syria, influenced by shared anti-colonial sentiments and strategic interests. This affinity left India reluctant to oppose Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or Brezhnev’s Soviet Union—key allies at the time.

The Fallout on India-Kuwait Relations

India’s Iraq policy during the 1990 Gulf War strained ties with Kuwait, leading to a decades-long diplomatic chill. High-level visits were rare, with the last significant interaction being Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s visit in 1981. Relations began improving only in the 2000s, culminating in Vice President Hamid Ansari’s visit in 2009 and now Modi’s historic visit.

Transforming India-Gulf Relations

Economic Cooperation: A Growing Partnership

• Energy Trade: The Gulf remains India’s primary source of crude oil, with Kuwait being a key supplier.
• Labour Exports: Millions of Indian workers contribute to Gulf economies, sending significant remittances back to India.
• Trade Growth: Bilateral trade between India and Kuwait has expanded beyond oil, encompassing goods like food products, textiles, and machinery.

Security and Counterterrorism

• Defence cooperation between India and Gulf nations has grown, with agreements on counterterrorism, intelligence sharing, and maritime security.
• These collaborations aim to address common threats like terrorism and piracy while fostering regional stability.

Connectivity and Infrastructure

India and Gulf states are investing in joint infrastructure projects, including ports and energy pipelines, which enhance regional connectivity and economic growth.

Geopolitical Realignment in the Gulf

Post-Assad Era Opportunities

The diminishing influence of Ba’athist regimes, particularly in Syria, has paved the way for closer ties between India and moderate Gulf states like Kuwait. These nations, focused on modernization and stability, are natural allies for India in the changing geopolitical landscape.

The Rise of Reform-Oriented Monarchies

Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are undergoing significant transformations, driven by:

• Religious Moderation: Promoting tolerance and reducing extremist ideologies.
• Economic Diversification: Reducing dependence on oil and investing in sustainable industries.
• Social Modernization: Implementing progressive reforms, including greater inclusivity for women and youth.

This modernization aligns with India’s vision of strategic partnerships built on shared goals of economic and social progress.

Pakistan’s Waning Influence in the Gulf

Pakistan’s traditional sway in the Gulf is diminishing due to several factors, including:

1. Geopolitical Shifts: The Gulf’s growing alignment with India reflects its desire for balanced ties in South Asia.
2. Economic Dependency: The Gulf states are increasingly focused on partnerships with stable and growing economies like India’s, reducing reliance on Pakistan.

This change has allowed India to forge stronger bilateral ties with Gulf monarchies, enhancing its regional influence.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Middle East

Managing Regional Contradictions

India must navigate complex dynamics in the Middle East, including:

• Tensions with Iran and Turkey: India needs to balance its ties with Gulf states while maintaining strategic relationships with Iran (for energy and connectivity) and Turkey.
• Palestinian Concerns: Supporting Arab-Israeli cooperation while addressing Palestinian aspirations is essential for long-term stability in the region.

Leveraging the Abraham Accords

The Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and several Arab states, present India with opportunities to deepen its strategic partnerships. Collaborating with these nations on technology, energy, and security can strengthen India’s presence in the region.

The Significance of Modi’s Visit to Kuwait

Closing the Diplomatic Gap

Modi’s visit symbolizes a renewed commitment to strengthening India-Kuwait ties after decades of limited engagement. This visit aims to:

1. Enhance Economic Ties: Expand trade beyond hydrocarbons to include sectors like technology, healthcare, and education.
2. Deepen Security Cooperation: Establish frameworks for intelligence sharing and defence collaboration.
3. Strengthen Cultural Bonds: Recognize the contributions of the Indian diaspora, a vital bridge between the two nations.

Comparing India-Kuwait Relations: Past vs. Present

Aspect	Historical Context	Contemporary Outlook
Economic Ties	Oil-dependent trade	Diversified trade across multiple sectors
Diplomatic Engagement	Limited high-level visits	Active bilateral dialogues
Strategic Alignment	Iraq-focused policies	Partnership with moderate Gulf states

Balancing India’s Role in a Changing Middle East

To strengthen its position in the Gulf, India must:

1. Promote Stability: Advocate for peaceful resolutions to conflicts involving Iran, Israel, and Arab states.
2. Encourage Economic Partnerships: Leverage its large workforce and technological expertise to deepen ties with Gulf economies.
3. Support Arab-Israeli Cooperation: Act as a mediator to foster better relations between Israel and the Arab world.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Kuwait represents a pivotal moment in India’s Middle Eastern diplomacy. By bridging historical gaps and embracing opportunities like the Abraham Accords, India can redefine its role in the Gulf.

As the Middle East undergoes deep structural changes, India’s proactive engagement with moderate Arab states positions it as a key partner in the region’s modernization and stability. This visit not only strengthens bilateral ties but also reinforces India’s broader strategic vision for the Middle East.

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Analysis of The Indian Express Editorial 2 : Building Bridges

Context

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s visit to India signifies a pivotal moment in strengthening bilateral ties. Amidst Sri Lanka’s political stability and economic recovery efforts, this visit focuses on enhancing cooperation in trade, technology, and regional security, while addressing longstanding challenges like fishermen’s rights, Tamil minority issues, and China’s growing influence.

Introduction

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s first overseas trip to India marks a defining moment in the two nations’ bilateral ties. Taking place during a crucial period for Sri Lanka’s political and economic landscape, the visit underscores the importance of strengthening partnerships in areas like trade, technology, and regional stability.

This article explores the key takeaways from the visit, focusing on political stability in Sri Lanka, economic cooperation, longstanding bilateral issues, and the way forward for both nations.

Political Stability in Sri Lanka

A Strong Coalition and Clear Mandate

President Dissanayake leads the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, which enjoys a decisive majority in Sri Lanka’s legislature. This strong mandate has brought much-needed political stability to a country long plagued by fragmented governance.

With this stability, Colombo is now better positioned to:

1. Deliver on international commitments.
2. Drive reforms critical for economic recovery.
3. Strengthen partnerships with key allies, including India.

India, as Sri Lanka’s closest neighbor and strategic partner, stands to gain from this period of political cohesion, which enables more efficient dialogue and execution of collaborative projects.

Key Areas of Economic Cooperation

1. Continuation of the IMF Programme

Sri Lanka’s commitment to its IMF-supported economic recovery plan is a positive sign for India and other international partners. Balancing fiscal discipline with welfare spending remains a priority, ensuring the country moves toward financial stability without neglecting its citizens’ needs.

2. Reviving the Free Trade Agreement (FTA)

Efforts to resume discussions on a Free Trade Agreement signal intent to boost bilateral trade and investment. Areas of focus include:

• Energy supply: Leveraging India’s expertise to meet Sri Lanka’s growing energy demands.
• Technology exchange: Promoting collaborations in IT, renewable energy, and manufacturing.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Encouraging increased Indian investments in sectors like tourism, agriculture, and education.

3. Digital Public Infrastructure

Sri Lanka is looking to India for inspiration in developing its digital ecosystem.

• Aadhaar-like identity systems can streamline welfare distribution.
• UPI-based payment solutions could revolutionize financial transactions, promoting inclusivity and efficiency.

Such technological collaborations can accelerate Sri Lanka’s digital transformation while showcasing India’s leadership in scalable public infrastructure models.

Addressing Longstanding Bilateral Issues

1. Fishermen and Maritime Boundaries

One of the most contentious issues between the two countries involves fishermen crossing maritime boundaries, often leading to arrests and conflicts.

• Challenges: Overfishing in shared waters and unclear maritime demarcations exacerbate tensions.
• Proposed Solutions:
  1. Diplomatic engagement at the highest levels to establish clear protocols.
  2. Exploring coordinated fishing models that balance ecological sustainability with the livelihoods of fishermen in both nations.

2. Tamil Minority Rights

India has consistently emphasized the importance of Sri Lanka upholding its Constitution, particularly concerning Tamil minority rights. Prime Minister Modi reiterated this during President Dissanayake’s visit, urging Sri Lanka to hold provincial council elections.

• The 13th Amendment: While India refrained from explicitly mentioning the amendment, which guarantees minority rights, its significance looms large in bilateral discussions.
• Political Sensitivities:
  • Sinhala nationalist sentiment poses a challenge for the Lankan government.
  • For India, Tamil Nadu’s political dynamics make the issue both emotive and politically significant.

India must tread carefully, balancing its expectations with the realities of Sri Lanka’s domestic politics.

Key Takeaways from the Visit

Opportunities for Deeper Cooperation

President Dissanayake’s visit sets the stage for:

1. Economic Synergy: Accelerating trade, investment, and energy partnerships.
2. Technological Advancements: Strengthening collaborations in digital infrastructure and IT.
3. Regional Security: Enhancing cooperation in maritime security and counterterrorism.

Managing Challenges with Diplomacy

• Sensitive issues like fishermen’s rights and Tamil minority rights require patient and sustained dialogue.
• India must maintain open communication with Sri Lanka to address concerns about China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean without resorting to coercion.

Navigating the China Factor

India’s Concerns about China’s Presence

China’s increasing involvement in Sri Lanka, particularly through infrastructure projects like the Hambantota Port, has raised eyebrows in New Delhi.

Establishing Red Lines

To prevent misunderstandings and maintain trust, both nations must:

1. Define clear boundaries regarding external influences in the region.
2. Ensure transparency in bilateral agreements, prioritizing regional stability.

Through open communication, India and Sri Lanka can avoid unnecessary tensions while fostering a relationship rooted in mutual respect and cooperation.

Comparison: Key Focus Areas of Cooperation

Focus Area	India’s Contribution	Sri Lanka’s Benefits
Energy Collaboration	Renewable energy solutions, fuel supply	Sustainable and affordable energy access
Digital Infrastructure	Aadhaar, UPI models	Modernized welfare systems, financial inclusivity
FTA Revival	Increased trade and investment	Boosted economic growth and job creation
Security	Maritime security, counterterrorism	Enhanced safety and regional stability

Conclusion

President Dissanayake’s visit to India is more than just symbolic; it represents a renewed commitment to a deeper, more dynamic bilateral relationship. Both nations stand at a crucial juncture, with opportunities to strengthen ties across economic, technological, and strategic fronts.

Addressing challenges like fishermen’s rights and Tamil minority issues with diplomacy and mutual understanding will be key to sustaining this momentum. Additionally, clear communication on the China factor can pave the way for a partnership that prioritizes regional peace and prosperity.

As India and Sri Lanka build bridges, this partnership has the potential to become a cornerstone of stability and progress in South Asia

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